North Carolina vs. Duke odds, line: 2020 college football picks, predictions from model on 31-19 run

The North Carolina (4-2) Tar Heels visit the Duke (2-5) Blue Devils in an ACC rivalry showdown on Saturday. North Carolina will aim to bounce back from a close-fought loss to Virginia a week ago. Duke will look to continue its positive momentum after a lopsided win over Charlotte in their its outing.

Kickoff is at noon ET in Durham. William Hill lists the Tar Heels as 11.5-point favorites on the road, up two points from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points expected, is 63 in the latest North Carolina vs. Duke odds. Before making any Duke vs. North Carolina picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 31-19 on top-rated picks through nine weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning over $600 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UNC vs. Duke. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for Duke vs. UNC:

  • North Carolina vs. Duke spread: North Carolina -11.5
  • North Carolina vs. Duke over-under: 63 points
  • North Carolina vs. Duke money line: North Carolina -410, Duke +330
  • UNC: The Tar Heels are 3-3 against the spread this season
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils are 4-3 against the spread in 2020

Latest Odds:

Blue Devils
+11.5

Why North Carolina can cover

The Tar Heels are electric on the offensive side, headlined by the work of quarterback Sam Howell. Howell has been one of the best players in the nation this season, throwing for 1,846 yards and 14 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Howell’s efficiency, including 10.5 yards per attempt, is elite, and North Carolina ranks as the No. 5 total offense in the country, leading the ACC with 532 yards per game. Howell has a top-flight pass-catcher in Dyami Brown, who leads the ACC with 641 receiving yards, and Brown ranks in the top-10 nationally in that same category. 

Overall, UNC ranks as a top-three unit in quarterback rating, completion percentage, rushing yards, yards per carry and scoring, with a balanced, potent offensive attack. Defensively, the Tar Heels aren’t as elite, but they have definite strengths to lean on against Duke. The Blue Devils have 13 interceptions, most in the ACC, already this season, and North Carolina can take advantage of Duke’s lack of explosiveness in the passing game. On the ground, the Tar Heels rank fourth in the ACC in total defense, with a top-five mark in rushing defense in allowing just 142.2 rushing yards per game. 

Why Duke can cover

After a slow start, Duke’s offense is operating at a higher level in recent weeks, averaging 35.5 points per game in the last four contests. That includes a 53-point explosion in last week’s win over Charlotte, and the Blue Devils have strong skill position players. Duke has a tandem of quality running backs, Deon Jackson and Mataeo Durant, who both have more than 450 rushing yards this season, with the pair combining for nine rushing touchdowns. 

Both rank in the top 10 among ACC ball-carriers in rushing yards, and Duke brings a balanced receiving corps to the table, with four pass-catchers topping 200 receiving yards already in 2020. Defensively, the Blue Devils are above-average against the pass, giving up just 237.9 yards per game through the air, and that proficiency should bring optimism against Howell and the North Carolina offense.

How to make North Carolina vs. Duke picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Duke’s Chase Brice projected for more interceptions than touchdowns and Howell projected to fall short of his season-long passing averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Duke vs. North Carolina? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Carolina vs. Duke spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,100 on its top-rated college football picks over the past four-plus seasons, and find out.

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