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Why networks are reporting different electoral college totals for Biden and Trump

November 5, 2020
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Look at Fox News Thursday, and you’ll see Joe Biden has 264 electoral-college votes of the 270 needed to win, while Donald Trump lags behind with 214. But tune into CNN and you’ll find that Biden has 253, while Trump has one fewer vote, at 213. 



a sign in front of a building: People cast their ballots for the 2020 election at the Sherman Township Center School on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Colo, Iowa.

© Brian Powers, The Register/ USA TODAY Network
People cast their ballots for the 2020 election at the Sherman Township Center School on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Colo, Iowa.

What’s behind the discrepancy?

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Some networks are using different polling data to make conclusions about which states are being won by each candidate. 

CBS, CNN, ABC and NBC (along with its cable sibling MSNBC) are members of the National Election Pool, a consortium using data from Edison Research.  

But the Associated Press, a primary source for PBS, NPR and many major newspapers including USA TODAY, has its own VoteCast system.  Fox News has its own voting analysis system, based partly on AP data, that’s used for its own projections.

Both say they’ve adjusted for the much larger number of absentee mail-in votes. Unlike previous exit polls, VoteCast – launched for the 2018 midterm elections – recruits from a random sample of registered voters, using mail, landline and cellphones and online methods, to conduct “massive” online polls.  The National Election Pool surveys voters at polls along with telephone surveys of absentee and mail-in voters. 

Fox projected that Biden would win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes at 11:20 p.m. EST Tuesday, with only 73% of votes counted. That sparked immediate pushback from the Trump campaign and a rare on-air appearance by Arnon Mishkin, who leads Fox’s decision desk, who defended its call.  AP followed Fox’s Arizona call a few hours later, which was reported by USA TODAY..



Bret Baier sitting at a desk: Fox News projected Joe Biden would win Arizona on Tuesday night, but other networks haven't. The reason? They use different sources for election data.

© Fox News Channel
Fox News projected Joe Biden would win Arizona on Tuesday night, but other networks haven’t. The reason? They use different sources for election data.

Thursday, AP said it will continue monitoring Arizona results, where Biden holds a 68,000-vote lead, but said the majority of the 450,000 votes that remain to be counted are in Democratic-leaning Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and makes up 60% of the state’s population, which informed its projection.

The Arizona count: In latest batch, Trump gets share of votes he would need to reclaim Arizona. But next rounds of ballots present new challenges

But results in Nevada, Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, have also not been finalized. 


US President Donald Trump arrives to speak, flanked by Karen Pence, US Vice President Mike Pence and US First Lady Melania Trump. during election night in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, early on November 4, 2020.



Supporters wait for Joe Biden to speak outside the Chase Center on Riverfront in Wilmington, DE.



An election challenger sits as poll workers count absentee ballots for the city of Detroit at the TCF Center in downtown Detroit on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Poll workers count absentee ballots for the city of Detroit at the TCF Center in downtown Detroit on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Poll workers count absentee ballots for the city of Detroit at the TCF Center in downtown Detroit on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.



Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly with his wife Gabby Giffords and Kelly daughter’s Clair, on left (gray suit) and Claudia after giving at speech at Congress Hotel on Nov 3rd, 2020.



Press positions are marked out in the parking lot of the Chase Center on Riverfront where Joe Biden’s election night event was scheduled to take place in Wilmington, Del.



D’Angelo Morris, 20, of Connecticut, left, a Joe Biden supporter, and Kyle Rouleau, 30, of Connecticut, a supporter of President Trump, argue in Times Square in Manhattan Nov. 3, 2020.



Jaime Harrison delivers a concession speech to supporters at his election night watch party at Hunter-Gatherer Brewery in Columbia, S.C., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Jaime Harrison delivers a concession speech to supporters at his election night watch party at Hunter-Gatherer Brewery in Columbia, S.C., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Steven Slugocki, the Maricopa County Democratic Party chair, reacts as he watches Maricopa County election results during a watch party at the Maricopa County Democratic Party offices in Phoenix on Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020.



People watch election results on a large ticker in Times Square in Manhattan Nov. 3, 2020. Expected unrest that led to an increased police presence as well as businesses boarding up storefront windows had not developed as polls closed throughout the country.



Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer was the first speaker to address the small crowd virtually during the Progress Michigan “Drive In for Democracy” in the parking lot of the Four Points by Sheraton in Novi on Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020.A small gathering of 10 cars came to the drive in event and were on hand to listen to Governor Whitmer.



Terry Clifton watches as results for New York are announced during an election night watch party organized by The Equity Alliance at Minerva Avenue in Nashville, Tenn., Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Voters stand in line just before polls close at 7 p.m. at the Rockford Board of Elections office, 301 S. Sixth St., on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Rockford, Ill.



Voters use physically distanced booths, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, at the Mount Washington Recreation Center polling location in Cincinnati.



Hamilton County Board of Elections employees prepare to begin the election night vote count by processing mail-in and early voting ballots on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Norwood. It’s done in a way that allows the public to see the counting for transparency sake.



Workers process ballots Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020 at the City of Milwaukee Central Count Facility, 501 W. Michigan Ave. in Milwaukee, Wis. Split into three shifts, tabulators are positioned in pods of around 50 people to limit the amount of interaction among the hundreds working there because of the coronavirus.



Marija Whitman holds her daughter, Kesi, as they waits for her husband to drop off their absentee ballots at a polling station at Mesa Community College in Mesa, Ariz. Nov. 3, 2020.



People cast their ballots for the 2020 election at the Sherman Township Center School on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Colo, Iowa.



The polls open in Virginia just past 6 a.m. as voters line up at McLean High School in McLean, VA on Nov. 3, 2020.



Ken Nelson of Nevada votes at his polling place in Ray Lounsberry’s Shed in Nevada, Iowa.



A visitor to the Lane County Election offices in Eugene, Ore., helps herself to an “I voted” sticker after dropping off her ballot.



Trump supporter and volunteer Rob Gardenier places campaign signs outside of McLean High School polling place in McLean, Virginia just after the polls opened on Nov. 3, 2020.



Poll observers Kelly Swartz, left, and Kathy Thulien watch as citizens receive their ballots to vote at Faith Lutheran Church Celebration Ministry Center on November 3, 2020, in Appleton, Wis.



Donning a patriotic mask, Dianna Grindstaff-Abbott assists citizens in the voting process at the former Shopko buildingTuesday, November 3, 2020, in Neenah, Wis.



Debbie Leverette, founder of The Heart of the Community in Anderson, S.C. looks at her phone waiting to help drive anyone to a polling site on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.



People wait in line to vote at the polling location at Antioch High School on Tuesday, November 3, 2020 in Antioch, Tenn.



Voters wait in line at precinct 73 at the Cypress Lake Presbyterian Church in Fort Myers, Florida.



A poll worker prepares to wipe down each polling booth after use at Creekside Elementary in Fairfield, Ohio, on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Poll manager Susan Taylor wears shoes with the word ‘Vote’ as she checks people in to vote at the Hazel Parker Playground on Election Day on November 3, 2020 in Charleston.



Voters fill the Portuguese Club polling station on Election Day in in Milford, Massachusetts.



Wanda Curtis pays respects at the grave of Susan B. Anthony in Mt. Hope Cemetery in Rochester, NY.



First lady Melania Trump exits the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center in Palm Beach, FL after casting her vote in the 2020 presidential election Tuesday, November 3, 2020.



Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden visits a neighbor’s house after stopping at his childhood home on Nov. 03, 2020 in Scranton, Pennsylvania.



President Donald Trump visits his campaign headquarters in Arlington, Virginia on Nov. 3.



A poll official prepares mail-in ballots to be counted at the Davidson County Commission building on Nov. 3, 2020 in Nashville, Tenn.



A mariachi band waits to serenade new citizens that are first-time voters at the Dodger Stadium voting center in Los Angeles



Voters wait in line outside Hickory Hills Elementary School in Springfield, Mo. to ballot in the 2020 presidential election on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020.



Olivia DeFalco, left, of Phoenix, Elicia Piceno, right, of Phoenix and other voters wait in line at the polling place at White Hawk Gallery in old town Scottsdale, Ariz. on Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020. Voters said they waited over about an hour to vote.



40/40 SLIDES

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Election results: Why networks are reporting different electoral college totals for Biden and Trump

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